Continuously elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 for 3 ~ 6 months predict one-year radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION Core disease activity indicators of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have been found to be limited in predicting joint destruction progression. Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) 3 plays an essential role in joint destruction and was found elevated in some remission patients. We aimed to monitor dynamic core disease activity indicators and serum MMP-3 for one year and evaluate their value for predicting radiographic progression. METHODS Patients with active RA (Simplified disease activity index > 3.3) were treated according to the treat-to-target strategy. Serum MMP-3 was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and clinical data were collected simultaneously at 0, 1st, 3rd, 6th and 12th month. X-ray assessment of hand/wrist was repeated at baseline and the 12th month and a change of total Sharp score > 0.5 units was defined as radiographic progression. RESULTS Fifty-six patients completed one year follow-up and 29 % showed radiographic progression. Although not significantly different at baseline, serum MMP-3 and all core disease activity indicators, except for erythrocyte sedimentation rate, at the 12th month were significantly higher in the progressive group than in the non-progressive group. Among sixteen progressive patients, 69 % achieved the therapeutic target and 56 % had continuous elevated serum MMP-3, 38 % had continuous elevated serum MMP-3 and normal C-reactive protein (CRP) at the 6th month. Log-rank tests and repeated measures analysis revealed a significant difference in dynamic serum MMP-3 between progressive and non-progressive patients. Receiver operating characteristic curve and univariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated serum MMP-3 at 0, 1st, 3rd and 6th months, compared with CRP at the 1st month, were significant predictors for one-year radiographic progression (MMP-3 odds ratio (OR):10.500 ~ 27.000, all P < 0.05; CRP: OR = 7.400, P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS Our data showed that continuously elevated serum MMP-3 for 3 ~ 6 months predicted one-year radiographic progression which implied that monitoring of dynamic serum MMP-3 combined with core disease activity indicators may be more helpful for predicting radiographic progression and treatment decision in RA.